The health system in the industrialized countries is making progress. London statisticians have evaluated current figures and come to the conclusion that life expectancy could rise to over 90 years by 2030. The number of cancer deaths is also decreasing.
As inhabitants of the industrialized countries, our children could become significantly older than our parents and grandparents. A team of researchers led by Vasilis Kontis of Imperial College in London has evaluated current health data from 35 countries and comes to the conclusion By 2030, the average life expectancy in some nations could rise to over 90 years. The difference between the sexes is also becoming smaller. If women have lived significantly longer than men up to now, the researchers’ calculations indicate that this gap will slowly close in the future. For men, life expectancy will increase with 85 percent probability, for women with 65 percent.
However, there are regional differences. Girls born in Germany in 2016 have a life expectancy of 83 years according to the Federal Statistical Office. According to the new forecast, this figure could rise to 86 years by 2030. Her brothers, who currently live to be around 78 years old, could then reach 82 years on average.
According to the researchers, South Korean women will reach peak values. There is a 57 percent probability that their average life expectancy will rise to over 90 years. According to the researchers, French, Spanish and Japanese women will reach a similar age. The fact that women in the countries studied are getting older than men is mainly due to the fact that men there more often suffer fatal injuries and more often display behaviours such as smoking that increase their risk of diseases such as lung cancer and cardiovascular disease. Overall, the figures from the London statisticians show that life expectancy is increasing much faster than previously assumed.
The results of a group of researchers from Italy, Switzerland and the USA also fit this picture. In the journal Annals of Oncology, they report that the number of deaths from cancer in the EU is decreasing considerably. According to the study, around 1.3 million Europeans will die from tumours in 2017. Compared to 2012, 8 percent fewer men will be affected. For women, however, the figure is only 4 percent.
The researchers explain the difference with the fact that among the younger women there were more smokers than in the previous generation. That is why the lung cancer rate among them has increased. This type of cancer alone causes about 20 percent of all deaths in the EU.